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Josh Lin

Last activity a year ago

Signed up a year ago

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What are good free B2B platforms?

SA Saurabhsuman asked on 06 June 2020, 22:39
these are the good free ones: Alibaba, IndiaMart, Made In China, world trade, globalsources, DHgate, TradeIndia, iOffer.

Ripple employee here. Before answering the question, I think it’s important to note the difference between Ripple and XRP. Ripple is an enterprise software company using blockchain technology to make cross-border payments cheaper, faster, and more secure. XRP is the digital asset that runs natively on the XRP Ledger.

The question here is most likely referring to the price of XRP, since Ripple is not a publicly traded company, so I’m going to answer the question in the context of XRP.

Now that’s cleared up… what will be the price of XRP in 2020?

Honest answer, even as an employee at Ripple, I don’t know. Nobody knows.

Will XRP be more than $100 in 2020?

The probability of this happening is highly highly unlikely because a $100 XRP would mean that the entire market cap of XRP is $10 trillion. Right now (11/1/19), Bitcoin’s market cap is at ~$165 billion, and the entire crypo market is not even close to $1 trillion (it’s currently at ~$227 billion).

So a $100 XRP by the end of 2020 would mean that…

  1. XRP is probabilistically THE dominant and only digital asset that people are using. Super unrealistic, if not impossible, because as any inception of of new technology matures, what historically tends to happen is one design for all use cases diverges into many designs for several use cases.

    For example, when the first car was first invented… Ah yes, the Ford Model T, it was used for any transportation. The Ford Model T in the technological breakthrough of cars is Bitcoin in the technological breakthrough of cryptocurrency on blockchain.

    As the technology matured, we start to see different designs for different use cases (we have trucks, SUVs, soccer mom vans, Priuses, and etc.). That being said, it’s highly probable blockchain technology will be the same way. History never repeats itself, but it sure rhymes.
  2. Because XRP’s current market cap is $12.6 billion, XRP would have to… grow by 793.65x within roughly a year’s time, which is unrealistic as well. Just ask yourself, what’s the probability of anything growing by roughly 800x in one year’s time? … Bueller? … Bueller? … Bueller?

Now, I’ll go a step further to outline just how I’m personally investing in the crypto sector (not just XRP, but the entire sector because my end goal is to make money with limited risk, not just to invest in XRP—big difference).

With 5% of my risk capital, I personally have 3 cryptos that I’m bullish on (XRP is one of them because well, frankly, I work at Ripple, and I understand XRP and its potential). With that 5% of my risk capital, I give equal weighting to the 3 cryptos that I’m bullish on. As long as the fundamentals hold true for each of these 3 cryptos, my time frame is to watch it run over the next 5–20 years.

It’s really that simple. I’m not a trader, so I don’t go in and out constantly. My philosophy is, the biggest risk when it comes investing is… me, so I just do my due diligence, be right, and sit tight.

Now, where is the other 95% of my risk capital allocated?

Well, the risk/reward profile of the crypto space is asymmetric, meaning tremendous upside potential that outweighs minimal downsides. So instead of risking $1 to make $0.50, I risk a $1 to make $5-$10+. This means, I can be wrong 4 times out of 5 with my bets and still make money, meaning I only have to be right 20% of the time to make money, so I don’t have to be all that smart :)

While I’m bullish on the crypto sector as a whole, in order to minimize my downsides and to diversify my portfolio with other sectors with asymmetric risk/reward profiles, that’s where the remaining 95% of my capital’s allocated.

Truth be told, there are honestly other investments with better risk/reward fundamentals at this time (uranium, anyone?), since the crypto market is still so nascent.

If you’re interested in investments with asymmetric risk/reward profiles (low risk, tremendous upside), check out Chris MacIntosh’s work here.

Chris allocates his capital well before the market does. He did it in…

  • New Zealand real estate for a 64x return over 5 years, cashing out in mid 2006 just before Lehman Brothers reminded the world how dangerous the leverage had become.
  • the venture capital space where he built and then sold a VC firm which deployed around $30m of capital (too early to accurately predict his returns) selling out in 2015 when valuations had gone crazy).
  • He did it with Bitcoin (bought in 2014 at $600, haven’t sold; we wouldn’t be surprised at a $60,000 Bitcoin—trust me, we’ve done the math).
  • And he’s currently doing it with his investment research service Insider, where he shares what he’s personally buying and selling in his fund.

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